Insights
Research and philosophical posts on risk management, tail hedging, scenario design, and options markets.
Latest Research
Goldman's Tail Hedging Analysis Is Right About the Direction. The Hard Part Starts After the Model.
Goldman's framing is directionally right. The implementation stack that sits below the model is where programs actually live or die.
Your Real Balance Sheet: When "Diversified" Stops Feeling That Way
You discover that what felt like diversification was actually concentration in 'the economy is healthy.' When conditions change, the independence fades.
The Quiet Tax: Why Most Hedge Programs Die of Boredom
Most hedge programs don't fail during crashes. They fail during the two years before the crash, when everything is calm and the hedge looks like a line item that accomplishes nothing.
The Pain of Giving It Back
You made money. Then you watched it leave. That's not the same as never having made it. Your brain knows the difference.
Loss Aversion is the Constraint
The portfolio you abandon is the portfolio you do not own. Most investors aren't trying to beat the market—they're trying to avoid the one catastrophic mistake that changes their trajectory.
The hidden cost of 'always-on' crash insurance
Continuous protection sounds prudent until you account for the bleed. A framework for thinking about protection budgets.
When monetization rules matter more than strike selection
Strike selection gets the attention. Monetization discipline makes the difference.
Scenario libraries: why '2008 again' isn't a plan
Historical replays are useful diagnostics. They're not forward scenarios.
Skew as a sentiment indicator (and when it lies)
Put skew tells you something about demand for protection. It doesn't always tell you what you think.
A governance checklist for options overlays
The strategy is the easy part. Governance determines whether it survives contact with reality.
More research notes on the way.
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